Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 28.653853 34.054797 39.949479 46.829847 54.608195 63.097159 73.029278
2025-08-03 21.066229 28.327512 37.000722 47.986569 61.384642 77.044888 96.573608
2025-08-10 15.963048 23.775870 33.812772 47.357052 64.836360 86.302123 114.290458
2025-08-17 12.901527 21.002276 32.074234 47.814538 69.066557 96.189158 132.773612
2025-08-24 10.462334 18.532038 30.216583 47.629479 72.095433 104.374399 149.184928
2025-08-31 8.237574 15.912096 27.688526 46.066918 72.892196 109.403839 161.454336
2025-09-07 7.029722 14.643680 26.921457 46.833262 76.814647 118.655027 179.568983
2025-09-14 5.705009 12.908231 25.159843 45.847303 78.009898 124.046359 192.494884
2025-09-21 4.994579 12.127404 24.814074 46.956838 82.281412 133.872315 211.858638
2025-09-28 3.925517 10.432791 22.675067 44.927721 81.549035 136.330454 220.767548
2025-10-05 3.531209 10.023542 22.737997 46.515384 86.493253 147.278169 242.205668
2025-10-12 3.149658 9.561065 22.632864 47.773114 90.932326 157.592182 263.007625
2025-10-19 2.788696 9.118707 22.602933 49.325132 96.219752 169.845954 287.800731
2025-10-26 2.427897 8.598805 22.365631 50.506143 101.008931 181.622312 312.462206
2025-11-02 1.971412 7.700554 21.210410 49.849062 102.595847 188.399398 329.734138
2025-11-09 1.674281 7.144788 20.691516 50.325204 106.121685 198.342576 352.130579
2025-11-16 1.383167 6.507498 19.883977 50.132544 108.409080 206.321500 371.670054
2025-11-23 1.068044 5.666035 18.450693 48.505616 107.960060 209.734593 384.068022
2025-11-30 0.919185 5.337346 18.203384 49.303586 111.985793 220.696652 408.760584
2025-12-07 0.722559 4.737576 17.159235 48.276917 112.494135 225.705731 423.979450
2025-12-14 0.632534 4.529902 17.114884 49.432252 117.212963 238.041815 451.418469
2025-12-21 0.463491 3.869863 15.692512 47.319193 115.421503 239.018651 460.203834
2025-12-28 0.416811 3.778178 15.890209 48.972604 121.158838 253.342823 491.456803